3 Investment Factors that Don’t Drive Long-term Returns
作为一名长期投资者，你总是在考虑是什么因素推动了你的投资回报. Unfortunately, 许多投资者关注的是那些导致短期变化、实际上对长期市场回报没有影响的事情. 这不是他们的错——人们普遍相信这些神话，以至于许多所谓的“精明的投资者”会向你宣扬它们的重要性.
To help you make informed investment decisions, let’s look at three investment factors that, contrary to popular belief, don’t drive long-term investment returns.
1. Earnings reports
投资者一年有四次如坐针毡地等待他们喜爱的公司发布收益报告. 虽然这些报告提供了公司的最新表现和可能面临的挑战, they aren’t a good barometer of long-term investment returns, 在考虑潜在投资时，投资者会大大高估收益报告.
If earnings were an indicator of investment returns, 我们预计，盈利增长将先于投资回报上升, but this isn’t the case. Looking at the S&P综合指数，我们可以看到收益和回报并不像预期的那样一致. In fact, 在过去的一个世纪里，盈利增长和投资回报之间几乎没有任何关联.
Takeaway: Earnings should be taken with a grain of salt. 不要让这些季度电话影响你的长期投资目标.
2. Geopolitical crises
Regional tensions in Russia, the Middle East, and China, are causing investors fear over another world war. 你可能会认为这些担忧是你对投资犹豫不决的理由, 但历史表明，尽管这些日博best365下载可能会造成暂时的波动, 即使是最负面的地缘政治日博best365下载，市场也非常有弹性.
In the short-term, 地缘政治危机日博best365下载发生后，市场往往会下跌1%, with the total average drawdown being only 4.7% to the negative. 当考虑到这些日博best365下载的长期影响时，前景更加光明. 重大地缘政治危机后12个月的平均市场回报率为+2.1%, displaying just how resilient markets are, and how these events only had a short-term impact on returns.
Takeaway: A geopolitical crisis can cause minor, short-term declines, but have no effect on the long-term market outlook.
3. Periods of extremely high or low valuations
When looking at price-to-earnings (P/E) multiples over time, 股市似乎可以经历估值极高(或极低)的时期, but they are never sustained. 如下图所示，美国股市的25年平均市盈率为0.9%&P 500 is 16.4, 尽管市场在这个平均值上下波动, valuations always revert back toward this average.
In fact, 通常只有在非常特定的经济条件下(比如接近于零的利率)才会出现这种情况, the 2008 Financial Crisis, 或COVID大流行)，即估值在相当长一段时间内偏离其历史平均水平.
Takeaway: Extremely high or low valuations aren’t sustainable, 市场几乎总是会回到历史平均水平.
Making smarter, more informed investment decisions
如果收益报告和地缘政治日博best365下载等因素不影响股票回报, then what does? 对于长期投资者来说，基本面仍然是股票估值的基础. This includes earnings growth, dividends, and cash flows.
市场总是会根据最近的日博best365下载和新闻而波动, and while that might scare some investors, you can stop worrying about fleeting moments, 回到投资的基本原则上来，做出更明智的投资决策.
Sources
1. Chart #1 Source: http://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2021/03/22/myth-busting-earnings-dont-matter-much-for-stock-returns/
2. Chart #2 Source: http://www.lpl.com/research/blog/middle-east-conflict-how-stocks-react-to-geopolitical-shock.html
3. Chart #3 Source: http://insight.factset.com/sp-500-forward-p/e-ratio-rises-above-20.0-for-first-time-in-2-years
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